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Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.