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The Reform UK leader depicts his political party as a unique phenomenon that has burst on to the global stage, its meteoric rise an exceptional historic moment. But this week, in every one of Europe’s leading countries and from India and Southeast Asia to the United States and South America, hard-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties similar to his are also ahead in the public surveys.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the conservative, pro-Russian leader a prominent figure overthrew the head of government Petr Fiala. A French political group, which has just forced the resignation of yet another French prime minister, is ahead the polls for both the presidential race and the legislature. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the most popular party. A Hungarian political force, Slovakia's governing alliance and the Italian political group are already in power, while the Austrian FPÖ, the Dutch PVV and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang – all hardline nationalists – are part of an global alliance of anti-internationalists, motivated by right-wing influencers such as a well-known figure, seeking to overthrow the global legal order, diminish fundamental freedoms and undermine international collaboration.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

This nationalist wave reveals a recent undeniable reality that supporters of democracy ignore at our peril: an authoritarian ethnic nationalism – once thought toppled with the historic barrier – has supplanted economic liberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of firsts: “US priority”, “India first”, “China first”, “Russian primacy”, “my tribe first” and often “my tribe first and only” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of many autocratic states and fewer democratic ones, and this ideology is the force behind the breaches of international human rights law not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every instance of global strife.

Root Causes Explained

It is important to understand the root causes, common to almost every country, that have driven this new age of nationalism. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalization that was accessible yet exclusionary has been a free for all that has been unjust to all.

Over the past ten years, political figures have not only been slow to respond to the millions who feel left out and marginalized, but also to the shifting dynamics of world economic influence, transitioning from a US-dominated era once led by the United States to a multipolar world of rival major nations, and from a rules-based order to a power-based one. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means free trade is being replaced by trade barriers. Where economics used to drive government policies, the nationalist agendas is now driving economic decisions, and already over a hundred nations are running protectionist strategies characterized by bringing production home and friend-shoring and by restrictions on international commerce, investment and technology transfer, lowering international cooperation to its lowest ebb since the post-war period.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

However, there is hope. The situation is not fixed, and even as it solidifies we can find hope in the pragmatism of the global public. In a recent survey for a prominent organization, of thousands of individuals in dozens of nations we find a significant portion are more resistant to an exclusionary nationalism and more willing to support global teamwork than many of the officials who govern them.

Across the world there is, perhaps surprisingly, only a small group of staunch global cooperation opponents representing 16.5% of the global population (even if a quarter in today’s US) who either feel peaceful living between diverse communities is impossible or have a win-lose perspective that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the cost of others doing badly.

However there are another 21% at the other end, whom we might call dedicated globalists, who either still see international collaboration through free commerce as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what a prominent philosopher calls “rooted cosmopolitans”.

Worldwide Public Position

The vast majority of the global public are moderate in views: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “US priority” ideology would suggest, or fully global citizens. They are patriotic but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “our side” and the “others”, adversaries always divided from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Do the majority in the middle favor a obligation-light or a responsible global community? Are they prepared to accept responsibilities beyond their local area or community boundaries? Yes, under certain conditions. A initial segment, 22%, will support aid efforts to relieve suffering and are ready to act out of altruism, backing emergency help for disaster zones. Those we might call “good cause” multilateralists empathize of others and believe in something larger than their own interests.

A second group comprising 22% are practical cooperators who want to know that any taxes paid for global progress are used effectively. And there is a final category, 21%, personally motivated collaborators, who will approve cooperation if they can see that it benefits them and their communities, whether it be through guaranteeing them food on the table or peace and security.

Forging a Collaborative Consensus

So a clear majority can be constructed not just for humanitarian aid if money is well spent but also for global action to deal with global problems, like climate crisis and pandemic prevention, as long as this case is presented on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we stress the reciprocal benefits that flow to them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we cooperate out of need or if we have a need to cooperate, the response is each.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can turn back the anti-foreigner sentiment: we can defeat current pessimistic, isolated and often aggressive and authoritarian nationalism that vilifies immigrants, foreigners and “others” as long as we champion a positive, outward-looking and welcoming national pride that addresses people’s desire to belong and resonates with their immediate concerns.

Tackling Key Issues

And while detailed surveys tell us that across the Western nations, illegal immigration is currently the biggest national issue – and it's clear that it must promptly be brought under control – the snapshots of opinion also tell us that the people are even more worried by what is happening in their own lives and within their immediate neighborhoods. Last month, the UK Prime Minister gave an emotional speech about how what’s positive in the nation can overcome what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “dysfunctional” and “deteriorating” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our economy and community.

However, as the leader also pointed out, the far right is more interested in exploiting grievances than resolving issues. A Reform leader hailed a ill-fated economic plan as “the best Conservative budget” since 1986. But he would also implement a comparable strategy – what was planned – the largest reductions in public services. The party's proposal to reduce public spending by £275bn would not repair struggling areas but ravage them, create social division and wreck any spirit of solidarity. Under a far-right government, you will not be able to afford to be sick, impaired, needy or vulnerable. Every day from now on, and in every constituency, the party should be asked which medical facility, which school and which government service will be the first to be cut or shut down.

The Stakes and the Alternative

“This ideology” is neoliberalism at its most cruel, more destructive even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond austerity. What the public are indicating all over the west is that they want their governments to restore our financial systems and our communities. “The party” and its global allies should be exposed repeatedly for policies that would harm both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be ahead of us, we can go beyond highlighting Reform’s hypocrisy by setting out a case for a better Britain that resonates not just to visionaries, but to realists, to personal benefit, and to the everyday compassion of the British people.